Analysis of March 2022 Annapolis 200 IM and 100 breast

The results from the Annapolis meet last weekend got sent out and my splits in the 200 IM were interesting, so I thought I'd do a quick analysis comparing it to several other 200 IMs I've swum, primarily my 2019 Tropical Splash race, which was my last in-season 200 IM prior to this one, and was the leadup to my MPR at 2019 Nats. I'll also do an analysis on my troubling 100 breast splits.

Here are the splits from this and several other 200 IMs, all ones that went around the same time plus my two fastest Masters 200 IMs, from Zones 2017 and Nats 2019. The splits from this meet are on the left, with the rest of the splits going slowest to fastest left to right.

Meet	2022 Annapolis	2021 Nats	2013 Zones	2017 Tropical Splash	2012 Zones	2019 Tropical Splash	2017 Zones	2019 Nats
Fly	29.84	30.03	29.28	29.41	27.89	30.17	29.34	28.05
Back	35.54	35.77	34.66	34.78	35.26	35.99	35.01	34.57
Breast	41.86	42.59	42.06	41.54	42.11	40.38	38.75	40.03
Free	32.82	34.06	34.25	34.21	34.36	33.00	32.17	32.22
Total Time	2:20.06	2:22.45	2:20.25	2:19.94	2:19.62	2:19.54	2:15.27	2:14.87

Analysis of the splits:

• Fly: Meh, it's ok. I consciously didn't push it that hard on the fly and think I probably had a 28 mid/low in me if I'd pushed it. That said, it's within the range of my normal post-2012 splits. Of note, it compares well to my 2019 Tropical Splash split of 30.17, so I hope come Nats I'll be able to drop it below a 28.05.
• Back: I dropped a few butterfly kicks off both walls due to not enough oxygen, so I'm not surprised it's firmly average. I'd like to think I'd have had a high 34 with better underwaters and more oxygen, but it again tracks well compared to my 2019 TS split.
• Breast: Yeah, I expected this one to be slow. The majority of my breast speed comes from my underwater pullout and I shortened that way down (I think almost 2 body lengths less than normal off both walls) due to the whole lack of oxygen thing. Frankly, I expected this split to be closer to 43 seconds given how much I shortened the underwaters, so I'll count it as a win!
• Free: Surprisingly good! Again, really short underwaters, but that's my 3rd fastest closing split after my two fastest shaved/tapered swims at 2017 Zones and 2019 Nats, and is faster than my 2019 TS closing split, so I'll definitely take it. That's a great sign of my conditioning and I'd be very happy if I'm able to close in the :31 range at Nats.

All in all, it was a surprisingly well split race given the water inhalation and corresponding lack of underwaters. Breast was the key leg that was slower than 2019 TS, which makes sense since that's the one that is most affected by my underwaters, but the rest was better split than that race. If I'd been able to replicate my breast split from that meet here, I'd have been a 2:18.5, which would have been an in season PR, and honestly wouldn't have been out of the question given my other splits.

My goal time for the 200 IM at Nats is a 2:13, and if I can have a drop at Nats similar to my drop from 2019 TS to 2019 Nats, I think that's within reach! 😁

For the 100 breast, the splits were nowhere near as promising as the splits for the 200 IM. Here's an analysis of the splits, with the splits from this meet on the left, the splits for the first 100 of my 200 at Tropical Splash in January, and then going down to my fastest in season splits on the right.

Meet	2022 Annapolis	2022 Tropical Splash 200	2022 Severna Park	2015 Sprint Classic	2018 Tropical Splash	2021 Spring Nats	2017 Sprint Classic	2019 Annapolis
1st 50	33.85	36.02	34.12	33.33	33.79	32.22	32.44	32.27
2nd 50	39.15	39.34	39.00	39.51	38.79	38.88	38.13	37.65
Total Time	1:13.00	1:15.36	1:13.12	1:12.84	1:12.58	1:11.10	1:10.57	1:09.92

Two key comparisons, to Severna Park last month (which was an utter dumpster fire of a race) and to the first 100 of my 200 at Tropical Splash in January:

• Severna Park: Annapolis *felt* like a much faster race. No goggle issues, no bottoming out in the 2.5' turn end on the underwaters, and my stroke just felt faster, yet the race was just a smidge faster. I really don't know why!
• Tropical Splash: The fact that my cruise 2nd 50 of my 200 at TS, and while not wearing a tech suit, is nearly the same speed as the 2nd 50 of my sprint 100 is concerning. I didn't swim that 2nd 50 too fast at TS, I paced it appropriately (in season I tend to split between :3-:40 on that 2nd 50), which means it's just a bit faster than cruise tempo. I guess I really do have some sort of a breakdown between my cruise tempo and my sprint tempo, cuz I took 8 and 9 strokes per lap on the 2nd 50 at Annapolis vs 6 and 7 at Tropical Splash, yet nearly went the same time.
• The rest of the compared races: With the exception of 2019 Annapolis' 2nd 50, my 2nd 50 wasn't *that* far out of ordinary in comparison, but my 1st 50 was quite a bit off the mark.

I really don't know what's going on with my sprint breast, but suffice it to say I don't have "it" this year. The 2nd 50 at this meet wasn't too terrible, but I just flat out don't have the speed to go out. Heck, in 2019 at this same meet, my opening splits in the *200* breast were 33.58 and 37.94, so clearly something is wrong this year. On the flip side, I'm quite happy with the 2:39 I swam in the 200 at Tropical Splash, so it seems the problem is with my sprint speed, not my 200 endurance.

March 2022 Annapolis meet recap and thoughts for Nats

This was my 3rd meet of the '21-'22 season and the first of the 3 that was more or less in optimal conditions. At the first meet, Tropical Splash in January, I had a tech suit snafu (tried to wear an old suit and a seam ripped) so I swam the meet in a baggy practice Speedo, and at Severna Park in February, the turn end was only about 2.5' deep and I had to deal with broken goggles on my last race. This time around, no suit or goggle snafus and it was a nice pool!

This meet and my last in-season meet of the season, Albatross Open (a SCM meet) in two weeks, are just intended for me to figure out my remaining 3 events for Nationals. I've already decided to swim the 200 free, 100 fly, and 200 breast, so I picked a somewhat random lineup for these two meets to figure out where I'm at in my training and what I have a good shot at doing well in. For this meet, I picked the 50 back, 200 IM, and 100 breast, while I picked the 100 free, 100 back, and 50 fly for Albatross.

50 back

It's been 3 years since I last swam this in short course and I didn't have any real expectations. I haven't trained any backstroke outside of IM sets this season and have barely touched on any speed work, either, and definitely haven't done any backstroke speed work.

I went a touch too deep on the start and had to take an extra kick to get to the surface, which threw off my stroke count on the first lap--I crossed under the flags nearly a full stroke off what I expected and made the conscious and stupid decision to try and stretch it out for the turn like I can in the 100 and 200. That, uh, did not work out well. I managed to keep it legal and not get DQed, but it was a horrendously long turn and I touched almost straight legged, which led into decidedly suboptimal underwaters for the 2nd lap. I then was about a half stroke too long on the finish, too. All told, I probably threw away half a second or more between the cruddy turn and bad finish.

That said, I went a 30.14! When I swam it last, in 2019, I was a 30.06 with a clean race, so for me to be close with a bad race is a great sign!

200 IM

I last swam this last summer at SCY Nationals and went a 2:22.4, so that was my goal time to beat. Prior to that, my last in season 200 IM was a 2:19.5 from 2019, which was an in season PR, so that was a stretch goal if I broke 2:22.

The race started off fine, but I inhaled water on two consecutive breaths on the second lap of fly, due to inhaling the wake of the much faster guy in the lane next to me. I never got enough air after that and was in a steadily increasing amount major oxygen debt by the end of the race. Dropped from my normal 6 butterfly kicks on back to 5 and 4 and had a long back-breast turn while trying to get more air, then did really short pullouts on breast, and probably didn't make it much past the flags...if I even made it past the flags...on free.

Still, I went a 2:20.0! Without the cascading oxygen debt issue, I think I could have certainly broken the 2:19.5 in season time from 2019. While it definitely wasn't a clean race, I think the oxygen part was really the only bad part of the race. All four strokes felt solid, and while I don't know what my splits were yet, it didn't feel like any of them were out of place.

When I went that in season PR of 2:19.5 in 2019, I finished that season with a MPR of 2:14.8 at Nationals in Mesa, so I think it's not unreasonable to think I'll be able to hit around that time if I swim it in San Antonio next month.

100 breast

Yeah, I have no idea what's going on with my fast breast this season. I went a 1:13.1 with a dumpster fire of a race at Severna Park last month, yet while this race felt much better, I only dropped my time down to a 1:13.0. This race felt much faster than that race and, besides taking an extra stroke compared to my plan on the 3rd lap, felt like an excellent swim, so I'm not sure where the disconnect is.

As a point of comparison, I swam the 200 breast at Tropical Splash in January and paced it well there. Even swimming in a baggy practice brief and cruising the first 100 appropriately, my first 100 split there was just a 1:15.9, so for there to be just a ~3 second gap between my cruise and sprint is troubling. On top of that, my normal in season 100 breast time for the past few seasons pre-covid was a 1:10-1:11, so something is clearly off with my sprint breast.

Overall thoughts

All in all, I'm happy with this meet! The 50 back and 200 IM were unqualified successes, warts and all, while the 100 breast sufficed to eliminate it from Nats contention.

Looking forward to Nats, the 200 IM is definitely going to be my event #4, so now I just need to pick the last two events. With the meet in two weeks, the remaining contenders are the 50/100/200 back, 50 fly, and 100 free. Of those, I'm only swimming the 100 back, 50 fly, and 100 free at Albatross, so the 100 back will also act as a proxy for the 200 back. 50 back is likely out as a Nats event, despite how comparatively well it went yesterday, since I just conceptually don't like 50s as much as 100s and 200s, so that effectively means I'm down to 4 possible events to pick the last 2 in my Nats lineup from.

I started this season with no intention of doing back at Nats, but my comparatively good performance in the 50 has me potentially rethinking that decision, pending the 100 back at Albatross not being a dumpster fire. My performances in the SCM 100 back have kinda been erratic over the years in comparison to my SCY performances those same seasons, so they haven't been a 1:1 proxy for my SCY performances, but way back in 2013 when I went my MPR 1:00.4 SCY 100 back, I went a 1:11.3 SCM 100 back at Albatross. I'll use that 1:11.3 as a yardstick to compare my time against and gauge both the 100 itself and 100 as a proxy 200 based on that 1:11.3. 

Albatross is on 4/2 and Nats entries close on 4/4, so I plan to make the final call on 4/3 and submit my entry then. We're also leaving for Puerto Rico the morning of 4/4, so I will be busy packing and getting ready and won't have a ton of time to deliberate over my lineup the rest of that weekend!