What to swim at Nationals?

I've got 5 meets, and a bit under 2.5 months, to figure out what I want to swim and submit my entry for Nationals.

So, I've gotta figure out what to swim.  As of right now, I only have a single cut, the 50 fly.  My 100 fly Nats time from last year is about .5 off the cut, but I should be able to hit that this by the entry deadline.  I'm about .6 off the 100 back cut, but should hit that in the next meet or two.  I'm a bit over 9.5 seconds off the 200 back cut, but have a pretty decent shot at that by the deadline.  That gives me four events.  I can pick two more events to swim at Nats, even if I don't have cuts in either of them.

With that in mind, here's the breakdown of all the possible events I could train for and swim at Nationals, and put up decent times in:

50 free: The Nats cut is a 24.31.  I went a 24.9 leading off the 200 free relay at Nats last year, but haven't broken 25.5 this year.  I just can't find that top gear in freestyle!  This is looking like a no-go.

100 free: The Nats cut is a 53.87.  I went a 57 at the end of our practice meet back in September, but haven't swum it since.  This should be *conceivably* within reach, but like with the 50, I can't find the top gear, so this is most likely a no-go.

50 back: The Nats cut is a 28.31.  I went a 28.96 at Nats last year, but haven't broken a 29.4 since then.  On top of that, I have consistently been taking the 100 back out in around a 30.0, which is way too close to my 50 time for my liking, even though the perceived level of exertion and effort is much less in the 100 than the 50.  For whatever reason, while I'm exerting a lot more energy and effort in the 50 back than taking out the 100 back, my 50 isn't finding the top gear.  With the amount of energy/effort difference between the two, I'd expect the 30.0 I take the 100 out in to correspond with a mid 28 in the 50, but that's not happening.  Ergo, unless I can figure out how to tap that top gear, the 50 is shaping up to be a no-go this season.

100 back: The Nats cut is a 1:01.71.  I went a 1:02.30 at last weekend's meet, having dropped nearly 4 seconds already this season, with five more meets to go.  This should be a slam dunk.

200 back: The Nats cut is a 2:12.94.  I've only swum this once so far this season, back in September, and it was a pretty poor swim even then--I went a 2:22.93.  I've broken a 2:30 from a push numerous times in practice, so this should be a fairly safe bet over the next five meets, especially if I get my 100 under a 1:02.  This should be a slam dunk.

50 fly: I've already got the Nats cut, having swum a 25.90 at Nats last year (the cut is a 26.83).  This will be a slam dunk.

100 fly: The Nats cut is a 59.06.  I swam a 59.53 at Nats last year.  I have only swum this event once this season, and I didn't try at all in it.  It will be a fixture at the next four or five meets and *should* be a slam dunk.

200 fly: The Nats cut is a 2:14.93.  I've only swum the 200 once as a Masters swimmer, and that was almost a year ago.  I can almost certainly drop about 10 seconds from the abysmal 2:32.90 I swam then, but I don't know if I have the full 18 second drop in me over the next 2.5 months.  This is probably going to be a no-go this season.

100 IM: The Nats cut is a 1:00.95.  I went a 1:01.77 at Nats last year, but haven't broken a 1:03 since then.  That being said, I've not been able to have a good race in it since Nats, either having it be a back to back event, or it being the last event of the day, or not having eaten enough food, etc.  I *should* be able to make the cut, but I'm just not sure if I'll be able to align the stars over the next 5 meets.  I think this is going to be a maybe this season.

200 IM: The Nats cut is a 2:14.93.  I went a 2:19.62 at Zones last year, and that was with a horrific back half of the race.  My breaststroke has vastly improved since then, and my free is better, too, so I'd like to think I could get to around a 2:15 pretty easily.  I'm swimming this at the first of the 5 remaining meets, so I'll see how it goes then.  Comparing my splits from Zones to Katie's 2:15 at Nats, I was almost 3.5 seconds ahead of her going into breast, and then we were dead even going into free.  I don't think my breast is nearly that much slower than hers anymore (more on that later), and I'd really like to think she doesn't have that much of a lead on me in free anymore, so a 2:15 should definitely be within reach.  I'm gonna say this one is a slam dunk.

400 IM: The Nats cut is a 4:50.13, and I went a 5:09.40 last weekend.  That 19 second gap is a lot smaller than it appears, since I most likely could have easily shaved off 10 seconds or so just from better race management.  And it *should* be fairly achievable to shave off the other 9 seconds by training for the race over the next 2.5 months.  All that said, it takes a lot of time to train for the 400 IM, and I'm already putting a lot of time in on other events, so I'll just call this one a maybe this season.

50 breast: The Nats cut is a 30.82.  If the split for the relay was correct, I went a low/mid 32.  Given how abominable my start was, and that I was laughing for the first 25, I might be able to pump out a high 31 right now, without any breast training.  That being said, I haven't swum the 50 in a meet yet, so I'll have to wait a meet or two to see what happens with it.  If I train for it, and have a race where I nail the turn, I could conceivably hit the cut this season.  Based on the IMers I've swum against this season, I've got a much stronger pullout than everyone I've swum against, even the ones who royally kick my behind once I'm up on the surface.  Stands to reason that I should be able to tweak my actual swim enough to carry over some of that speed to the surface.  I'll list this one as a maybe this season.

100 breast: The Nats cut is a 1:07.03.  Way back in the day, my fastest was a mid 1:08...but my 50 relay split is right at my all time fastest 50 ever...so it stands to reason that I *might* be faster now than I was back in highschool.  I'll have to swim it at a meet, though, to see where I'm at, since I haven't swum this event in ~8 years.  This'll be a maybe this year.

I'm trying to hit all of these events over the next two meets (2/3 and 2/9), so I can see where I'm at with each one and figure out what I need to focus on.

Should be interesting!!!