Wildly preliminary thoughts for Spring Nats event lineup

I took some time at lunch today to do a deep dive into my historical time progressions from past seasons, then compared them to my times from the meet this past weekend, made some ad hoc suited vs non-suited time adjustments, and projected that out over the remainder of the season in comparison to the cuts for Nats.

Up front, I only have one Nats cut right now. The rule is that you can swim 3 events without any cuts, then up to 6 events total as long as you've achieved a cut in the additional events within the past two years. Right now the only event I have a cut in is my 100 back from spring of 2024--the cut is a 1:04.21, and I squeaked under the wire with a 1:03.94 that spring. Since I didn't really train for the past two seasons, my times in that two year lookback window (spring 2024 - spring 2026) are pretty slow. Because of those doldrums, I'd have to look back to my times from the '22-23 season and earlier for comparable times over the course of a season. Just looking at the '20-'23 seasons and comparing them to the current cuts, I'd be sitting at 4-5 cuts, which opens up just about every event I'd want to swim at Nats. Looking back at the '17-20 seasons before the covid hiccup, I'd be sitting at 11 cuts, including a handful from in-season swims instead of shaved, tapered, and suited Nats times. The cuts this year do seem a bit faster than for this age group in years past, but it's the two years of not really training that's put me in this position. This is uncharted territory for me! 😆 

Anyways, looking at my historical in-season time progressions over the past decade and comparing them to my performances from this past weekend + adding a bit of a fudge factor for the suit issue:

100 IM (1:06.55 at the meet last weekend)

• '22-23 season: 1:04.97 suited in December > 1:02.79 at Nats
• '21-22 season: 1:05.53 unsuited in January >  1:01.90 at Nats
• '15-20 seasons: Not a single progression, but usually a 1:02-1:03 suited in January > 1:00-1:01 at Nats

With the suit fudge factor (not even counting my bad turns), I think my 1:06.5 last weekend would likely be equivalent to around that 1:04.9 from December 2022. I'm not sure if I'll be able to get back down to sub-1:02 at Nats this year if I swim the 100 IM there, but I'd like to get back down to around the 1:02 I went at Nats in 2023, and think that's definitely reasonable presuming the season doesn't go off the rails.

100 back (1:06.57 at the meet last weekend)

• '23-24 season: 1:08.11 unsuited in January > 1:03.94 at Zones
• '22-23 season: 1:07.97 unsuited in March > 1:02.47 at Nats (admittedly, the March swim was an AWFUL race)
• '17-18 season: 1:04.17 suited in November > 1:01.19 at Nats
• '16-17 season: 1:04.75 suited in November > 1:01.91 suited in March
• '14-15 season: 1:05.39 suited in November > 1:03.62 at Nats

With the suit fudge factor, I think my 1:06.5 would likely be equivalent to probably a bit faster than the 1:05.39 from all the way back in November 2015. I was in significantly worse overall shape that season, though in better swimming shape at this point of the season, so I think I can reasonably get down to around the 1:02 I went at Nats in 2023.

100 breast (1:17.80 last weekend)

Hahahahahahaha...I think breast is off the table at Nats this season. The last season I had respectable breast times was the '20-21 covid season. I'll still do some breast events at meets this season so I can see where I'm at when I'm not gassed at the end of a 3 event in ~15 minute turnaround, but I think there are larger issues with my breast than that.

50 fly (30.26 last weekend)

• '23-24 season: 29.67 unsuited in December > 29.40 unsuited in April
• Pre-covid seasons: Typically a :27.5-28.8 mid season suited > 26.4-27.4 at Zones/Nats

I dunno. Ever since covid, my fly sprint speed has fallen off a cliff. I went from reliably going suited 27s-28s in season to having a 29.09 being my fastest post-covid time. Admittedly, that 29.09 was unsuited, but methinks there's something rotten in the state of Denmark...aka, my sprint fly. My 100 fly post-covid hasn't seen nearly as drastic a slowdown (I've been able to get it down to a suited 1:01.5 at 2022 Nats, with only swims from 2012, 2013, and 2017 faster than that out of my 20+ 100 flys as a masters swimmer), so there's something fishy going on with my top end sprint speed. I prefer the 100 fly to the 50 fly, anyways, so no real sweat off my brow if I can't drop this time this season.

Looking ahead at potential Nats event lineup

There are at least 5 more local meets that I plan to do this season, potentially as many as 8 more, before the entry deadline for Nats. I plan to crank through a good number of events, though not all are Nats candidates. The list of events I plan to swim at the local meets, with asterisks marking the ones I plan as of now to swim at Nats, and bold with asterisks marking the ones I think I should be able to achieve a Nats cut in, if I don't already have a cut:

• 50 free
• 100 free
• 200 free*
• 500 free
• 50 back
• 100 back*
• 200 back*
• 100 breast
• 200 breast
• 50 fly
• 100 fly*
• 200 fly
• 100 IM*
• 200 IM*
• 400 IM

That would give me a lineup at Nats of the 200 back and 200 IM on Friday, 100 back on Saturday, and 200 free, 100 fly, and 100 IM on Sunday. Ideally I'd space it out as two events per day at Nats, but while that Sunday lineup isn't ideal, it's manageable. The saving grace at Nats is that with how big the meet is (usually 1800+ swimmers!), even if you're swimming back to back events, you're pretty much guaranteed at least an hour of downtime between races.

As I crank through these events at meets, some might drop off the list of Nats contenders, some might get added on, but with just a single meet under my belt, this is what I'm thinking so far.

If we have Zones this year, I'm considering doing the 400 IM and 500 free there. I plan to do them at least once at a local meet before then, but I'll suit up for Zones if we have it. My team hosts a meet in mid-January at the same pool we just swam at last weekend, so I'll suit up for that meet, too, and have entered the 100 back, 100 fly, 100 IM, and 100 free. Definitely a hefty event lineup for a single day meet, but I want to see what I can handle, as well as how I'll do in the 100 back and 100 IM suited; on the plus side, the events are spaced out so I shouldn't have any back-to-back-to-back swims like last weekend that put me through the wringer. Besides that meet and potentially Zones (they haven't announced yet if we're having it this year), I'm currently planning to swim the rest of the meets unsuited.

Going off on a bit of a tangent--I prefer the 200s to the 100s, so I'm currently penciling in a gameplan for next season (presuming I stay healthy and in the water, yada, yada, yada) where I do all five 200s again at Nats, a la 2019. Even setting aside my current struggles with top end sprint speed, I don't particularly like the 50s as a matter of principle. I have a running joke where I tell my friends on the team that I don't have a single fast twitch muscle in my body, and philosophically that's not far from the truth. The 100s are about at the top of my comfort zone as far as sprinting is concerned, and 200s are my sweet spot. I'll do the 500 and 400, but definitely prefer the 200s most of all the races.

First meet of my comeback season!

It's no secret that the past two seasons have been less than stellar. Between injuries and just life in general, my training was thoroughly mediocre at best, and I took almost 6 months out of the pool from spring to summer this year. I still swam a good number of meets during the 2023-2024 season, but my results at them were pretty lackluster. In the 2024-2025 season, I swam only one meet, and it very unsurprisingly went poorly.

This season, on the other hand, is much better! I've lost ~45 pounds, I'm back in the water training regularly, I'm back in the weight room for the first time in ~8 years, and I'm staying healthy (so far, at least). If all goes according to plan, I should finish out the season with 7-9 in-season meets before going to Nationals in Greensboro at the end of April. That'll put me at the most meets I've done since the 2018-2019 season!

I had the first meet of my season today. I picked events I swam at this same meet in 2024 (it was the one meet I did last season) and 2023, and used my times from those swims as my seed times so I could do a 1:1 comparison. I swam the 100 IM, 100 back, 50 free anchoring the 200 free relay, 100 breast, and 50 fly, in that order.

My only goals for this meet were to beat or match my seed times in each event. In practice to date this season, my endurance has been coming along quite nicely, but my speed isn't there yet. For example, prior to 2023, my normal times in practice for 50s free at 200 pace from a push were :31-32, and currently I'm holding :33-34. My endurance is there and I'm not at all dying in practice, but my speed has noticeable room to grow. I'm not worried about it yet, as the speed has been improving--doing the same set in late October, for example, I was holding :35-36. If I'm still plateaued at :33-34 come March, though, then it'll be time to panic.

100 IM

I had some kerfuffles on the fly and breast turns due to my right goggle having filled up on the start and making my depth perception *slightly* less than ideal, but the swimming itself felt great. I went a 1:06.5, exactly 2 seconds faster than the last time I swam this event, at this meet last season!

The 1:08.5 I went last year was my 2nd slowest 100 IM as a masters swimmer, with only a 100 IM from my very first meet as a masters swimmer all the way back in 2011 being slower than it. The 1:06.5 is now my 6th slowest masters time, which doesn't sound like much in the grand scheme of things, but it is my fastest unsuited December 100 IM!

Note: Prior to fall 2023, I swam the vast majority of my in-season meets suited, wearing my tech suit from the previous spring's Nats. Since the fall of '23, I've worn a jean speedo to in-season meets, to Alaina's absolute delight. Joking aside, there is a noticeable difference in my times when I'm suited vs unsuited. I went a suited 1:04.9 at this meet in 2022, and I think that time is probably more or less comparable to the 1:06.5 I went today. Time comparisons for suited vs unsuited swims in the same event aren't an exact science, but anecdotal results I've seen from swimming the same event at back to back meets, one suited and one unsuited, make me think the 1.6 second difference between the suited and unsuited swims at this meet in 2022 and 2025 means the two are pretty comparable.

100 back

I almost completely whiffed the turn at the 50--going under the flags; I was a half stroke off my normal count, so I made the dumb split second decision to try turning long instead of short, and ended up barely touched the wall with the tips of my toes. Effectively no push off that wall, but my underwaters made up for it at least somewhat.

I went a 1:06.5 (I'll need to check when the official results are posted, but I might have gone the exact same time I went in the 100 IM, ha!), which is a drop of 1.6 from my seed time. In absolute terms, while this is now my 4th slowest 100 back, compared to the 2nd slowest that was my seed time, it is my fastest December 100 back, suited or unsuited. Doing a similar ~1.5 second handicap due to being unsuited like for the 100 IM, that would put me solidly in reach of my normal fall times. My back hasn't felt great in practice lately, there's been something off with my stroke and hip rotation timing; it wasn't as bad of an issue here as it was as recently as two nights ago at practice, but my back technique is still a bit off. Presuming I am able to get that sorted out, I expect to be able to drop this time some more on top of continued progress from my speed improving in general.

50 free

This was quite soon after the 100 back, I had time to do all of a 150 cool down before lining up for the relay. 😬

I am a very leg-heavy backstroker, and my legs were toast going into this race. I anchored the 200 free relay and it surprisingly felt good, though I have no clue what my split was. Given the ongoing speed issue and my legs being pretty much gone, I expect it was slow, despite how good it felt.

100 breast

Like the 50 free, it was a very quick turnaround! I got another 150 cool down in after the relay before hopping out to line up behind the blocks. My legs were still toast, my arms felt like noodles, my heart rate was still elevated, and my breathing still hadn't fully returned to normal by the time I got on the block, but I gave it my best effort. All total, there was around 15-20 minutes between the 100 back and 100 breast, which even when I'm in top top shape is not ideal for doing three events back to back to back.

I went a 1:17 and change, about a second slower than my seed time. The race itself felt fine overall, but I was just gassed. This race replaced my seed time as my 2nd slowest 100 breast on record as a masters swimmer, which is quite fair. Going into this meet, I had pretty low expectations anyways, as I have done zero breast training in practice outside of doing it in IM sets. My breast feels fine in practice (I've had a number of seasons where it's felt off even when I've been training it, so I'll for sure take it feeling fine!), I just haven't specifically trained it or done any speed work with it, so my hope was to just match or hopefully improve on my seed time by a bit. Oh well, I think I swam it about as well as I could expect for being my third of three races in 15-20 minutes. 🤷

50 fly

I had a longer break after the 100 breast, so I was able to do a good 500 cool down. Got my heart rate and breathing back to normal, got my legs to stop feeling like jello and my arms to stop feeling like noodles, and mostly felt ready to go, though definitely not at 100%. I dropped from my 31 seed time to a 30 and change, so I'll take it! I felt strong and in control for the whole race and didn't fade at all, so while the time was slow in the grand scheme of things, the overall race was an improvement over how I've swam it the past couple of years.

That 31 seed time was my slowest masters time, while the 30 is my 2nd slowest time. I have 10 different 28s and 29s as a masters swimmer (and 10 different 27s!) all suited, so I think I'd have been right there in the mix if I was not as tired and was suited. Still, progress is progress, so it's a positive sign.

On the plus side, given how strong I felt and how I didn't fade at all, I think I'm ready for the 100 fly first the first time in two years at one of the meets coming up in January. I certainly don't expect to go a fast time, but I'm interested to see where I'm at now. As recently as early November I was noticeably fading during a 50 fly in practice and could even feel it at the end of a 25 fly, so I'm 100% moving in the right direction even if the time isn't there yet.

Overall thoughts

I'm making quite satisfactory progress. That's the key takeaway from this meet--while none of my times were anything at all to write home about in and of themselves, with the understandable exception of the 100 breast they were all an improvement over the last time I swam them. My top end speed isn't there yet, but I stayed strong in each race and didn't fall off a cliff like I did at this meet last season, or how I did at most of my in-season meets in the '23-24 season.

With continued consistent training in the water and weight room, losing the last ~10 or so pounds to reach my target weight (my target weight is actually a bit under what I graduated college at, and by far the lightest I've been since then 2008 or so!!!), and hopefully continuing to stay healthy, I have high hopes for Nats in Greensboro in April. I don't think I'm on track to hit any lifetime PRs or possibly even any masters PRs, but after 2 seasons of injuries/lackluster training at best/resultingly slow times at meets across the board, I think I could have some very solid performances at Nats. If I can continue this kind of training and healthiness all through this season and next season, then I think Nats in 2027 could be a barnstormer.

Regarding '26 Nats, I'm leaning towards doing just 100s and 200s, though I'm conceptually tossing around the 400 IM and/or 500 free. Over the next handful of meets from January-March, I'll have plenty of opportunities to get solid racing under my belt and see which events are optimal for my training this season. The 200s are philosophically the ones I like best, as even in the seasons where my top end speed has been the best, I just am not built to be a sprinter, but I'm not ruling anything out just yet. The entry deadline is April 6th, so I should be able to get through all of the local meets before I have to make the decision. Usually the deadline is before the last one or two local meets, so it's nice that I should have a chance to race all my potential events and make an informed entry decision this go-round.

Onward and upward! 😀