I took some time at lunch today to do a deep dive into my historical time progressions from past seasons, then compared them to my times from the meet this past weekend, made some ad hoc suited vs non-suited time adjustments, and projected that out over the remainder of the season in comparison to the cuts for Nats.
Up front, I only have one Nats cut right now. The rule is that you can swim 3 events without any cuts, then up to 6 events total as long as you've achieved a cut in the additional events within the past two years. Right now the only event I have a cut in is my 100 back from spring of 2024--the cut is a 1:04.21, and I squeaked under the wire with a 1:03.94 that spring. Since I didn't really train for the past two seasons, my times in that two year lookback window (spring 2024 - spring 2026) are pretty slow. Because of those doldrums, I'd have to look back to my times from the '22-23 season and earlier for comparable times over the course of a season. Just looking at the '20-'23 seasons and comparing them to the current cuts, I'd be sitting at 4-5 cuts, which opens up just about every event I'd want to swim at Nats. Looking back at the '17-20 seasons before the covid hiccup, I'd be sitting at 11 cuts, including a handful from in-season swims instead of shaved, tapered, and suited Nats times. The cuts this year do seem a bit faster than for this age group in years past, but it's the two years of not really training that's put me in this position. This is uncharted territory for me! 😆
Anyways, looking at my historical in-season time progressions over the past decade and comparing them to my performances from this past weekend + adding a bit of a fudge factor for the suit issue:
100 IM (1:06.55 at the meet last weekend)
- '22-23 season: 1:04.97 suited in December > 1:02.79 at Nats
- '21-22 season: 1:05.53 unsuited in January > 1:01.90 at Nats
- '15-20 seasons: Not a single progression, but usually a 1:02-1:03 suited in January > 1:00-1:01 at Nats
With the suit fudge factor (not even counting my bad turns), I think my 1:06.5 last weekend would likely be equivalent to around that 1:04.9 from December 2022. I'm not sure if I'll be able to get back down to sub-1:02 at Nats this year if I swim the 100 IM there, but I'd like to get back down to around the 1:02 I went at Nats in 2023, and think that's definitely reasonable presuming the season doesn't go off the rails.
100 back (1:06.57 at the meet last weekend)
- '23-24 season: 1:08.11 unsuited in January > 1:03.94 at Zones
- '22-23 season: 1:07.97 unsuited in March > 1:02.47 at Nats (admittedly, the March swim was an AWFUL race)
- '17-18 season: 1:04.17 suited in November > 1:01.19 at Nats
- '16-17 season: 1:04.75 suited in November > 1:01.91 suited in March
- '14-15 season: 1:05.39 suited in November > 1:03.62 at Nats
With the suit fudge factor, I think my 1:06.5 would likely be equivalent to probably a bit faster than the 1:05.39 from all the way back in November 2015. I was in significantly worse overall shape that season, though in better swimming shape at this point of the season, so I think I can reasonably get down to around the 1:02 I went at Nats in 2023.
100 breast (1:17.80 last weekend)
Hahahahahahaha...I think breast is off the table at Nats this season. The last season I had respectable breast times was the '20-21 covid season. I'll still do some breast events at meets this season so I can see where I'm at when I'm not gassed at the end of a 3 event in ~15 minute turnaround, but I think there are larger issues with my breast than that.
50 fly (30.26 last weekend)
- '23-24 season: 29.67 unsuited in December > 29.40 unsuited in April
- Pre-covid seasons: Typically a :27.5-28.8 mid season suited > 26.4-27.4 at Zones/Nats
I dunno. Ever since covid, my fly sprint speed has fallen off a cliff. I went from reliably going suited 27s-28s in season to having a 29.09 being my fastest post-covid time. Admittedly, that 29.09 was unsuited, but methinks there's something rotten in the state of Denmark...aka, my sprint fly. My 100 fly post-covid hasn't seen nearly as drastic a slowdown (I've been able to get it down to a suited 1:01.5 at 2022 Nats, with only swims from 2012, 2013, and 2017 faster than that out of my 20+ 100 flys as a masters swimmer), so there's something fishy going on with my top end sprint speed. I prefer the 100 fly to the 50 fly, anyways, so no real sweat off my brow if I can't drop this time this season.
Looking ahead at potential Nats event lineup
There are at least 5 more local meets that I plan to do this season, potentially as many as 8 more, before the entry deadline for Nats. I plan to crank through a good number of events, though not all are Nats candidates. The list of events I plan to swim at the local meets, with asterisks marking the ones I plan as of now to swim at Nats, and bold with asterisks marking the ones I think I should be able to achieve a Nats cut in, if I don't already have a cut:
- 50 free
- 100 free
- 200 free*
- 500 free
- 50 back
- 100 back*
- 200 back*
- 100 breast
- 200 breast
- 50 fly
- 100 fly*
- 200 fly
- 100 IM*
- 200 IM*
- 400 IM
That would give me a lineup at Nats of the 200 back and 200 IM on Friday, 100 back on Saturday, and 200 free, 100 fly, and 100 IM on Sunday. Ideally I'd space it out as two events per day at Nats, but while that Sunday lineup isn't ideal, it's manageable. The saving grace at Nats is that with how big the meet is (usually 1800+ swimmers!), even if you're swimming back to back events, you're pretty much guaranteed at least an hour of downtime between races.
As I crank through these events at meets, some might drop off the list of Nats contenders, some might get added on, but with just a single meet under my belt, this is what I'm thinking so far.
If we have Zones this year, I'm considering doing the 400 IM and 500 free there. I plan to do them at least once at a local meet before then, but I'll suit up for Zones if we have it. My team hosts a meet in mid-January at the same pool we just swam at last weekend, so I'll suit up for that meet, too, and have entered the 100 back, 100 fly, 100 IM, and 100 free. Definitely a hefty event lineup for a single day meet, but I want to see what I can handle, as well as how I'll do in the 100 back and 100 IM suited; on the plus side, the events are spaced out so I shouldn't have any back-to-back-to-back swims like last weekend that put me through the wringer. Besides that meet and potentially Zones (they haven't announced yet if we're having it this year), I'm currently planning to swim the rest of the meets unsuited.
Going off on a bit of a tangent--I prefer the 200s to the 100s, so I'm currently penciling in a gameplan for next season (presuming I stay healthy and in the water, yada, yada, yada) where I do all five 200s again at Nats, a la 2019. Even setting aside my current struggles with top end sprint speed, I don't particularly like the 50s as a matter of principle. I have a running joke where I tell my friends on the team that I don't have a single fast twitch muscle in my body, and philosophically that's not far from the truth. The 100s are about at the top of my comfort zone as far as sprinting is concerned, and 200s are my sweet spot. I'll do the 500 and 400, but definitely prefer the 200s most of all the races.
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